Comments on: Kiva repayment data http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/ Exploring how to get real change for your dollar. Thu, 17 May 2012 07:10:39 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.7 by: Elie http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86031 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:36:16 +0000 http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86031 James, that's right on both counts (re: independence and re: fungibility). James, that’s right on both counts (re: independence and re: fungibility).

]]> by: James http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86013 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:28:03 +0000 http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86013 Sorry, I should have said the p-values assume defaults are independent, not delinquencies. Sorry, I should have said the p-values assume defaults are independent, not delinquencies.

]]> by: James http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86012 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:18:24 +0000 http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-86012 Thanks, that's an interesting analysis. I think the p-values also assume loan delinquincies are independent, and might be too low if that assumption fails, but your general point (that most of the differences are highly unlikely to arise by chance) probably still holds. One minor point: my understanding is that Kiva loans made through each field partner are effectively fungible with other loans issued by that partner, not between partners. Is that what you meant to say, or do I have the wrong end of the stick? Thanks, that’s an interesting analysis.

I think the p-values also assume loan delinquincies are independent, and might be too low if that assumption fails, but your general point (that most of the differences are highly unlikely to arise by chance) probably still holds.

One minor point: my understanding is that Kiva loans made through each field partner are effectively fungible with other loans issued by that partner, not between partners. Is that what you meant to say, or do I have the wrong end of the stick?

]]> by: Elie http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-83755 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:35:27 +0000 http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-83755 Yes, that's essentially the second possibility I listed above, that Kiva partners might prefer to repay a Kiva loan than a regular loan. Yes, that’s essentially the second possibility I listed above, that Kiva partners might prefer to repay a Kiva loan than a regular loan.

]]> by: Chris http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-83741 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:10:59 +0000 http://blog.givewell.org/2009/10/13/kiva-repayment-data/#comment-83741 Is is it possible that since Kiva's borrowers are not the clients but the institutions themselves (who in turn lend to the client and send the client details to Kiva for PR), that Kiva counts the default rates on their loans to institutions rather than the individual borrwers. My guess is that the Kiva loans are senior unsecured obligations that are repaid from an MFI's entire portfolio - thus individual defaults don't matter to Kiva. Is is it possible that since Kiva’s borrowers are not the clients but the institutions themselves (who in turn lend to the client and send the client details to Kiva for PR), that Kiva counts the default rates on their loans to institutions rather than the individual borrwers. My guess is that the Kiva loans are senior unsecured obligations that are repaid from an MFI’s entire portfolio - thus individual defaults don’t matter to Kiva.

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