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The Alliance for Effective Social Investment

We are in favor of scaling up proven programs, but against the Promise Neighborhoods initiative.

As far as we know, the only evidence that the Harlem Children’s Zone (or any similar approach) has been effective is the relatively recent study showing impressive effects on test scores at its charter schools. We discussed this study in a four-part series and concluded that:

• The effect demonstrated was extremely impressive and unusual.
• There are serious questions about how “real” the effect is (to what extent did it come from narrow “teaching to the test?”), how likely it is to be sustained as opposed to temporary, and how significant it is in terms of likely effects on actual life outcomes.
• These questions aside, there are also major questions about just what aspect(s) of Harlem Children’s Zone are crucial and whether they can be replicated at all, let alone at a reasonable cost.

Given this situation, we don’t feel it’s time to attempt a replication in 20 communities at once, at a cost that seems likely to stretch into the billions if and when these replications are fully carried out.

We’re not just concerned about mis-spending money. We’re concerned about overreacting to evidence, overpromising results, and thus damaging the credibility of future proposals along these lines. We’re concerned that the funds will be allocated, the Promise Neighborhoods will be rolled out, and 10 years from now we’ll check back and see no narrowing of the achievement gap.

We hope that someday, there will be a truly replicable program with an extremely strong case that it can put a significant dent in the achievement gap. If and when that day comes, a failed Promise Neighborhoods scale-up – and any other oversold programs – will come back to haunt us.

We feel it is appropriate to pursue some replication of, and experimentation with, the Harlem Children’s Zone model. We feel a rollout of this magnitude would be a mistake.

Earlier this month, a Gates Foundation representative (Mark Suzman, Acting President of the Global Development Program) made a post epitomizing what I feel is a key fallacy in the world of giving: that any and all progress in struggling countries can be attributed to aid.

The thesis of his post is that “A greater focus on results and accountability means that overall aid spending has been getting smarter, more focused and more effective. Increasingly, taxpayer dollars are spent on proven interventions that are saving and improving lives.” And the only support given for this thesis is observations about aggregate improvements in health, wealth and education (drops in childhood deaths, drops in the number of people living under a given poverty line, etc.)

Mr. Suzman concedes that “Economic growth in China and India has been the primary engine of this improvement,” but in his discussion of other regions including Africa, there is a strong implication (difficult to convey in an excerpt, but clear if you read the piece) that the mere fact of improvement points to the effectiveness of aid.

There is no mention of possible non-aid-related factors behind the improvement in these regions, such as:

• Improvements in government programs and government accountability, which could happen because of aid to governments or for other reasons
• Improvements in technology
• Local people making progress on their own problems, even if such progress isn’t visible in national-level GDP statistics

This fallacy is one that we see often. People often ask how we can recommend that donors not support certain areas, such as water or education, saying things like “If we don’t support these areas, who will?”

The answer may be that no one has to. It’s worth reminding ourselves that the first countries to emerge from poverty didn’t receive any aid from wealthier countries, and there is no easily discernible influence of aid in many of those that have emerged since.

People can and do solve their own problems. Rather than giving ourselves responsibility for everything they’re struggling with, we should focus on the areas in which we’re most likely to be able to help.

Among those who follow GiveWell, there is some interest in the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence and its mission of lowering the risks associated with the creation of artificial intelligence that “[leaves] human abilities far behind.” We have been asked several times to share our views on its work and the value of a donation given to it.

My only knowledge of this issue, as of now, comes from reading Less Wrong and Overcoming Bias and speaking with the Institute’s President, Michael Vassar. I’m interested in this community partly because it has a lot of people (including Mr. Vassar) who think critically and analytically about how to accomplish as much good as possible, considering all options and putting positive impact above other considerations; in that sense their values overlap strongly with ours.

At this point

• I believe that there are enormous risks and upsides associated with artificial intelligence. Managing these deserves serious discussion, and it’s a shame that many laugh off such discussion.
• I do not feel that the Institute is a strong opportunity for a donor to accomplish good. I sketched my reasons in this comment and will eventually lay out my thoughts more thoroughly.
• I do intend to learn more about this area and am open to changing my mind in either direction.

Consistent with the last point, I will be attending the Singularity Summit this year and encourage others interested in this topic to consider doing the same.