The GiveWell Blog

Will the rebuilding effort in Japan be about the survivors or about the nonprofits?

The most specific quote we’ve seen about a charity’s long-term plans in Japan comes from a Seattle Times interview with a Mercy Corps representative.

We are going to do post-trauma work with kids, and we are looking at how to make that really culturally appropriate … We are also going to get involved in the local economy. We are probably going to distribute vouchers that people can use to get into the stores as they reopen and buy goods, and pump up the local economy. We are going to look at small businesses that don’t have insurance and don’t have access to government funding, and may need support.

Our question: why vouchers and services, and not cash?

We’ve written before about the appeal of giving out cash as the simplest way to help people. This approach seems to have had strong results in Zambia and among the homeless in London – two environments for which it’s easy to think of problems with cash transfers (recipients may be undereducated, suffer from dysfunctional economic environments or even be mentally ill). In Japan, unlike in these situations, we can’t think of a single reason that survivors will need Mercy Corps (or anyone else) to provide for them, instead of handing donations over directly and empowering them to rebuild their own lives.

This feeling is compounded by Mercy Corps’s discussion of the Comfort for Kids program it is importing, which makes it clear that there could be serious challenges in adapting it to Japanese culture. With cash, survivors could decide what programs are best for them, rather than pinning their hopes on Mercy Corps’s ability to overcome these challenges.

In the past, we’ve withheld judgment on the value of giving out cash, because we don’t see any charities doing it consistently and we recognize that there are concerns. But if we see more groups taking the Mercy Corps approach to Japanese survivors – giving out constrained “vouchers” and adapting an imported child care program rather than giving cash to people who were fully self-sufficient before the disaster -we’re going to put less credence in these concerns. We’ll put more credence in the other possibility: that nonprofits are more interested in empowering themselves than in empowering the people they’re supposed to help.

We’re supporters of Saundra Schimmelpfennig’s Day Without Dignity, which encourages donors to do meaningful things to help others instead of feel-good things to help themselves. One of the core ideas she has promoted is that of giving cash, not supplies. We think it’s worth noting that donors may not be the only ones guilty of giving patronizing gifts: perhaps nonprofits themselves should be thinking more about when the best gift is a check with no strings attached.

Update on GiveWell’s web traffic / money moved: Q1 2011

In addition to evaluations of other charities, GiveWell publishes substantial evaluation on itself, from the quality of its research to its impact on donations. This year we plan to add quarterly updates regarding two key metrics: (a) donations to top charities directly through our website (b) web traffic. This is the first of these updates.

Money moved

By “money moved” we mean donations to our top charities that we can confidently identify as being made on the strength of our recommendation. This update focuses only on “money moved” that comes through GiveWell’s website; we’ll report on all donations due to GiveWell’s research at the end of the year (when the majority of large gifts occur).

While money moved through the website is only a fraction of overall money moved (and is also far greater in December than in other months), we believe this is a meaningful metric for tracking our progress/growth (as opposed to overall influence).

The charts below show dollars donated and the number of donations by month. Thus far, growth in 2011 has been strong.


This growth comes almost entirely from new GiveWell donors. We can’t identify the source for the vast majority of additional dollars donated — new donors have arrived at our website either via searching for “GiveWell” online or coming directly (i.e., entering www.givewell.org into their browser). Of the 2010 users who responded to surveys about where they heard about us, 13% found us via search, 23% found us through media, 25% found us through word of mouth or links from other sites, and 38% found us through the outreach of Peter Singer.

Our response to the Japan earthquake and tsunami appears to have led to a significant increase in traffic to the GiveWell website (more below) and a significant increase in the number of donations through our website, though not in the total dollar amount. We estimate that approximately $3,000 was given by 60 donors to Doctors Without Borders through our website as a result of our recommendation (in addition to approximately $1,500 in donations that donors contacted us and told us about).

Web traffic

The charts below show our web traffic over time, including the latest quarter. The most significant recent event was our increased traffic in the aftermath of the Japan earthquake and tsunami, for which many appear to have sought and cited our analysis.


Update on how to help Japan: March 24

Updated 3/25/11 12:15pm – see “Update on OCHA and Reliefweb” section below

Last week, we issued our recommendation for donors regarding disaster relief/recovery in Japan. Since then, we’ve been considering new information, investigating our view further, and getting feedback from many. This post is a clarification and update of our position.

Our bottom line position remains the same as in last week’s post. We believe that Japan will spend as much as it needs to in order to optimize its relief and recovery effort, whether or not you give (this is not the case for all disasters). We therefore recommend Doctors Without Borders, which helps with relief and recovery efforts worldwide (including far less well-resourced efforts). For those looking to help Japan specifically, the Japanese Red Cross is the best option we see.

The rest of this post will:

  • Discuss three distinctions that are key to our position:
    • “No funding needed” vs. “No room for more funding.”
    • “Relief” vs. “Recovery” vs. “Restitution” vs. “Everyday aid.”
    • “Appealing for donations” vs. “accepting donations.”
  • Discuss new information regarding the positions of the U.N. OCHA, the Japanese government, the Japanese Red Cross, and nonprofits working in Japan (all of which we considered last week in coming to our conclusion that the relief/recovery effort had no room for more funding).
  • Address various objections that have been made in response to our position.
  • Wrap up our current position and link to more recommended reading for those interested.

Three key distinctions

“No funding needed” vs. “No room for more funding”

We would never claim that the Japan relief/recovery effort is unnecessary (or does not require money). “Room for more funding” is a specific term we use to refer to whether additional donations would result in more of a given activity. We have written extensively on this topic (see our overview of “room for more funding” analysis as well as our multiple blog posts on the topic).

If it is the case that both (a) Japan requires an extensive, expensive relief and recovery effort; and (b) the government and relevant nonprofits will be funding this entire effort regardless of how many donations come in from individuals … then the relief and recovery effort has no room for more funding, and the actual impact of donations is something other than relief and recovery (for example, freeing up government funds for other activities or for lower taxes). This is, in fact, our best read on the situation in Japan (we believe the relief and recovery effort will not be improved by overseas donations).

“Relief” vs. “Recovery” vs. “Restitution” vs. “Everyday aid”

Relief: When a disaster hits, there is generally an immediate and important role for governments and nonprofits: search-and-rescue, medical treatment, getting basic supplies and temporary shelters to those affected, etc.

Recovery: Following the immediate relief phase, there is generally also an important role for government and nonprofits in helping with recovery. For example, in Haiti, large numbers of people are homeless and living in camps; a year after the earthquake, the camps still need to be managed while higher-quality transitional shelters need to be built. Speaking more generally (and just from impressions), there will often be people whose situation has changed so drastically that there’s essentially no debate that they should receive assistance (financial or otherwise) from government/nonprofit sources.

Restitution: to me, the above two terms refer to activities that few would dispute can/should be handled by government/nonprofit actors. They do not include “undoing or compensating for all damage” or “putting everything back the way it was.” I would refer to efforts to do so – above and beyond what I’ve characterized above as “recovery” – as “restitution.”

Any disaster will leave many people worse off than they were before, and many of these costs will be borne by private individuals and/or private insurance. To completely restore the area as though the disaster had never occurred is infeasible, but some “restitution” – gifts to compensate people for what they’ve lost – can be desirable to donors, depending on their values.

I believe that the best form of restitution, in a setting such as Japan with a highly functional and powerful economy, is likely to consist of cash payments to survivors. This leaves all the decisions about what to build up to the people in the area. And I believe that there is a point where even cash transfers begin to do more harm than good, since it is infeasible to determine exactly who should receive how much.

Everyday aid: in our review of the relief/recovery effort in the year following the 2010 Haiti earthquake, we noted that many of the activities charities were reporting under the heading of “disaster response” sounded to us like the same activities that are common all over the world, in non-disaster situations: microlending, programs focused on improving education, etc.

Our current take is that there is no room for more funding in Japan’s “relief” or “recovery,” and that donations are likely to have the effect of increasing “restitution,” “everyday aid,” or activities outside of Japan. We believe that Japan will spend as much as it needs to in order to optimize its relief and recovery effort, whether or not you give; this is not the case for all disasters.

3. “Appealing for donations” vs. “accepting donations”

In our experience, it is almost unheard of for a nonprofit organization to say it does not need donations (even when, as in one case, its core activity has no room for more funding and it is regranting funds to other major nonprofits).

There are people whose job it is to raise money, and more money can always be used to do more of something. However, if the Japan relief and recovery effort had room for more funding – i.e., if the government and nonprofits could not afford to pay for what they’re generally accepted to be responsible for in this situation – we would expect behavior beyond soliciting donations. Among other things, we would expect a formal, quantified appeal, like the ones that Reliefweb has posted for many other areas; more on this immediately below.

Update on OCHA and ReliefWeb

Last week we observed that no appeal had been posted to Reliefweb’s Financial Tracking System and that very limited funding had been reported; we contrasted this with the situation for Haiti three days after the earthquake hit.

It is still the case that the Financial Tracking System lists appeals for many countries but lists no appeal for Japan (archived).

The amount of funding posted is substantially higher than it was last week, with over $300 million given and over $175 million pledged. Nearly all of this (84% of gifts; 69% of pledges) consists of private gifts to nonprofit organizations including Red Cross organizations.

We think it’s important to note that aid from larger donors is still at very low levels: about $28 million from U.S. agencies (of which over $20 million is through the military) and $13 million from other governments. For contrast, on 1/25/10 (12 days after the Haiti earthquake hit), OCHA reported $740 million in funding with an additional $1.1 billion in pledges; we don’t have the breakdown between private donors and large donors at that date, but we know that for the 2010 appeal overall, the U.S. alone has given over $1 billion, over 10% of the total for 2010. For details see our annotated versions of the 2010 Haiti data and current Japan data.

Another data point is the behavior of foundations, which reported over $37 million for the 2010 Haiti appeal (same data linked above) vs. $6,115.00 to date for Japan. The Gates Foundation, in particular, gave two grants within a week of the Haiti earthquake but doesn’t appear to have given anything for Japan so far.

There are many ways to explain this behavior. (For an alternative to mine, see my conversation with John Hecklinger (DOC).) My feeling is that these major funders would be sending more to Japan than they had to Haiti if they felt Japan had serious room for more funding. This is particularly true of the U.S. government since Japan is a U.S. ally.

We also reviewed the latest situation report from OCHA. The section on “International assistance” makes it clear that the government continues to accept only a fraction of the assistance offered, and the tone toward nonprofits is also noteworthy:

The Government of Japan has requested that its position on international donations of relief items and on international Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) operating in Japan be made public. With regard to relief items, “the Government of Japan has received offers for relief goods/material from many countries, international organizations, NGOs and private sector. The Government is identifying the needs and establishing a mechanism for storage and transportation to affected people. Therefore, it is recommended not to send any relief goods without coordination with the Government and local governments”.

Concerning offers of assistance by NGOs, the Government of Japan states that “Search and Rescue operation phase still continues in the affected areas at this moment and the access to those areas is strictly limited to rescue workers. It is also reported that there is temporary shortage of petrol in the affected area. International/foreign NGOs are recommended to wait until the situation improves so that those NGOs are able to conduct their activities in a self-sustainable way”.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan has expressed his appreciation on behalf of the Japanese people for the condolences and assistance Japan has received from the international community in response to the earthquake and tsunami. He thanked the generous assistance extended by the rescue workers, search dogs, and nuclear power experts from various countries as well as in-kind contributions such as food, medical supplies, blankets, and other supplies. He noted that over 670 NGOs and other organizations had offered assistance to date.

The Government of Japan has received 130 offers of assistance from countries as well as 33 offers from international organizations. It has accepted relief items from 15 countries to date.

Update 3/25/11 12:15pm:A staff member from OCHA has responded to my query.

Dear Mr. Karnofsky,

Apologies for the delay in responding to your message.

I am attaching OCHA’s latest situation report which states the Government of Japan’s position on international assistance. Given the Japanese national capacity to respond, there will be no international, inter-agency, multi-sectoral appeal for assistance.

We have updated our site with much of the information from the Philanthropy website and others.

Please don’t hesitate if you have any other questions.

Update on the Japanese government and Japanese Red Cross

As noted above, the government has continued to accept only a fraction of the assistance offered. A statement by Moody’s implies to us that the government will be both willing and able to finance the relief and recovery.

The Japanese Red Cross has been a considerable source of confusion.

  • Early situation reports stated that “The Japanese Red Cross Society, with the support of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, has determined that external assistance is not required, and is therefore not seeking funding or other assistance from donors at this time” (see our previous blog post).
  • The current situation report has altered language:

    This bulletin is being issued for information only, and reflects the current situation and details available at this time. The Japanese Red Cross Society (JRCS) has mobilized its staff and resources nation-wide and domestic donations are being received to assist affected communities. JRCS is receiving cash contributions from some Red Cross Red Crescent National Societies in the spirit of solidarity.

  • The New York Times quotes a representative as saying, ” At present, the Japanese society is not launching a national or international appeal, but expressions of solidarity in the form of unearmarked financial contributions would be gratefully received.”
  • Quentin Fottrell writes:

    Naoki Kokawa, director of the International Department at the Japanese Red Cross in Tokyo, says the Japanese Red Cross didn’t issue an “international appeal” as a specific tool to fundraise, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t want or need your assistance.

    “The statement is certainly misleading and will be misunderstood by those outside of Red Cross/Red Crescent who do not know our system,” he says.

    An international appeal would be centralized in Geneva, Switzerland as it was when the Red Cross raised money in the aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti, Kokawa says, but media reports that charities working in Japan don’t need or welcome money are untrue.

    “This message that the Japanese Red Cross was not asking or accepting money was disseminated around the world,” he tells Pay Dirt. “That’s not true. We don’t need Geneva to manage external funding. We can manage it alone. But we need lots of money.”

  • The donation page for the Japanese Red Cross (archived) states, “If you want to donate money to the affected population of earthquake and tsunami, please contact your national Red Cross/Crescent society, which may have already launched fundraising campaign within your country.” We find this odd in light of the NYT’s statement that “The American Red Cross keeps 9 percent of any money it raises, which means that as of Tuesday [March 15] afternoon, it had raised more than $3 million for itself through the Japan campaign.”
  • The donation page for the Japanese Red Cross continues to state that “All the fund received under this account will be transferred to the Distribution Committee, which is formed around the local government of the disaster-affected prefecture and to be distributed directly among the affected population of earthquake and tsunami,” which may or may not be indicating that it plans on giving out cash benefits to survivors.

We believe that the Japanese Red Cross is facing pressure from many sides, including from organizations like the American Red Cross that have a direct interest in its accepting/soliciting donations. We believe that there is plenty of room for interpretation regarding its current funding needs, and that the above-discussed distinction between “appealing for” and “accepting” donations comes into play.

Our take is that the Japanese Red Cross (a) wants donations and does not want to do anything to discourage people from giving; (b) is not engaging in some of the behaviors we’d expect of an organization that perceives room for more funding in its relief/recovery effort. These behaviors would include a formal international appeal, through Reliefweb if not through the Red Cross system; declaring a fundraising target; accepting and soliciting donations earmarked for relief and/or recovery; and requesting and facilitating direct donations rather than encouraging people to give to local Red Crosses that take a cut of their own.

We believe that the Japanese Red Cross is a reasonable outlet for people looking for their money to be spent in Japan, as opposed to “wherever in the world it is most needed.” Our feeling is that overseas donations will not be crucial to (or, likely, used for) its relief/recovery effort. We would guess that they will more likely be used to fund what we’ve referred to above as “restitution” or “everyday aid.”

I did call the organization on Sunday night looking for clarification. I was given an address to email my questions to, which I then did; I haven’t heard back but will post something if and when I do.

Update on nonprofits

Last week, we noted that many nonprofits appear to be “on standby.” This week, it appears that activity by nonprofits has increased, but it is hard to say how significant a part of the effort they are, as well as whether they have “room for more funding” as defined above.

International nonprofits

We haven’t seen an up-to-date, consolidated account of nonprofits’ reports on their activities. Here is what we have found:

  • The InterAction (archived) and Chronicle of Philanthropy (archived) updates both seem out of date: for example, both state that World Vision is simply on “standby,” whereas World Vision’s website as of this writing states that it has been distributing supplies to 6000 people.
  • The most recent multi-NGO update we’ve seen is a March 18th AlertNet article and opens with:

    Despite the high death toll and shocking devastation caused by last week’s quake and tsunami, aid workers are not pouring into Japan.

    By and large Japan, as one of the most developed countries, has the capacity to respond and it has only accepted international support in a few specific areas, such as search-and-rescue teams, medical help and nuclear specialists.

    About a dozen international aid agencies are offering help in the northeast of the country. Most are focusing on getting to especially remote areas or on providing specialist help to the elderly or children.

    It continues with brief descriptions of the activities of the Japanese Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), Save the Children, Plan International, World Vision, Malteser International, Mercy Corps, CARE, and World Food Programme.

  • We also looked up a few international “household name” nonprofits whose names have been particularly prominent in the wake of the disaster.

Japanese nonprofits

Some have taken the approach of raising money for (or recommending) Japanese nonprofits, which (a) may be better positioned to help; (b) presumably will ensure that all donations are ultimately spent in Japan, even if more along the lines of “restitution” or “everyday aid” than “relief/recovery” (see distinctions above).

There’s no question that there are Japanese nonprofits that are active and soliciting donations. What is unclear is

  • Whether these nonprofits have “room for more funding” (as discussed above) as far as relief and recovery go, i.e., whether your donation is likely to lead to more relief/recovery activities or more other activities.
  • The quality of these nonprofits’ work. This is worth being quite concerned about, in our view. Issues like the ongoing fuel shortage highlight the fact that nonprofits can get in the way, or do harm, if they aren’t actively helping. The government’s quote above also highlights the fact that assistance isn’t necessarily welcome at all times and places.

Personally, I don’t see a good reason for an impact-focused donor to give to any of the organizations discussed above. Very little information is available about any of them, their activities, or whether they have room for more funding. If I were to give to a Japanese organization with the aim of making sure my money was spent in Japan, I’d opt for the Japanese Red Cross, which has the advantages of

  • Possibly planning to give out cash to survivors (see above), though I wish we had more clarity on this. (I did call the organization on Sunday night, and was given an address to email my questions to, which I then did; I haven’t heard back but will post something if and when I do.)
  • Being very large and receiving a lot of money. I think Saundra Schimmelpfennig makes a good case for general consolidation and top-down coordination in situations like this one. The Japanese Red Cross always has the option to contract with (and thus grant) nonprofits that would be helpful, and I would guess it is much better than U.S. donors at determining which nonprofits these are.
  • Being widely perceived as responsible for the relief effort as a whole, something I believe makes it more accountable than other nonprofits. My feeling is that most nonprofits are assumed to be doing good, and only get criticism for egregious blunders; by contrast, the local Red Cross tends to draw criticism for anything and everything that goes wrong or is non-optimal in a relief effort. I may elaborate on this idea in a future post. To me this is likely to have a serious impact on organizational incentives and behavior, and is a serious reason to prefer the local Red Cross as a donor, in a relief situation.

Our bottom line on nonprofits: odds are that some nonprofits are doing very helpful work and that some have “room for more funding” in doing helpful work. The problem is that we don’t have a way to figure out which these are. From the perspective of an overseas donor, I don’t believe that nonprofits present a good opportunity to help with the Japan relief and recovery effort.

Our bottom line

The situation regarding the needs of the Japanese Red Cross, as well as nonprofits’ opportunities to help, has become less clear to me, so I am less confident than before that donors have no outlet for contributing to the relief and recovery effort. However, that is still my position, and I stand by all of the statements at the top of our previous post.

Giving to the Japanese Red Cross is the most reasonable option I can see for donors determined to help Japan specifically; and I still think a gift to Doctors Without Borders is the most appropriate outlet for the emotions that most donors (particularly our audience) are likely feeling at this time. The latter is the best way I can see to ensure that your gift helps to both fund and improve disaster relief and recovery, even if not in Japan. And I don’t think giving to Doctors Without Borders now will stop anyone from giving to Japan-related efforts if more issues come up in the future.

Our responses to other objections and concerns

Could the lack of appeals for funding be due to issues around Japanese culture and communication styles?

Several commenters on our previous post raised this issue.

I think Saundra Schimmelpfennig (paraphrased transcript posted with permission – DOC) makes a good argument against this: “The people making these decisions are high up enough that they’re used to dealing with Westerners and understand Western culture.”

If, indeed, there is a miscommunication, I believe that the appropriate agents to resolve it are those working directly with the people responsible for making (or not making) appeals. I think that these people, in Japan, have better access to those who can help them communicate with Americans than individual donors have to people who can help them communicate with Japan.

Also note that the case for our recommendation is, by and large, based on actions and opinions of many different actors, not just statements from Japanese officials. The evidence we’ve cited includes Moody’s opinion regarding whether the Japanese government can be expected to finance relief and recovery; the lack of an official appeal on Reliefweb; the behavior of large funders such as USAID and the Gates Foundation who ought to be able to deal with any “cultural miscommunications” along these lines better than we can; and the behavior and communications of international nonprofits, which appear to be playing a limited role.

Is GiveWell’s recommendation “reckless?” Does it risk turning people off from giving in an urgent situation?

GiveWell’s recommendation is not to refrain from giving. It is to give to Doctors Without Borders – an organization that is active in Japan and is helping people in need around the world. For those determined to see your money spent in Japan, we are pointing to the Japanese Red Cross.

We don’t control the way our views are presented in the media, but if you read the presentation of our views on our website, you will not see any argument for simply holding onto your money.

Along these lines, we liked Brigid Slipka’s piece on using Japan as an inspiration to give, whether or not your money is spent in Japan.

GiveWell appears to recognize that different donors have different values in a situation like this: some are more interested in “helping people in desperate need” while others are more interested in “having their money spent in Japan, even if not as part of the relief and recovery effort.” Why does GiveWell present its recommendation to the former group as its bottom-line recommendation, instead of giving the two recommendations on equal footing?

We believe that much of our audience comes to us looking for a single bottom-line recommendation; they either have very low interest in putting in their own time and thought, or very high alignment with our values and trust in our judgment. In addition, we believe that forcing ourselves to give a single recommendation is a good way of forcing ourselves to think through a situation as deeply as possible. So we always give our bottom line in the form of a single recommendation that takes all factors into account, including factors that are subjective, emotional, unquantifiable, etc.

But we also seek to be as transparent as possible about the factors behind that recommendation. I believe we’ve been sufficiently clear that our bottom-line recommendation does not apply to donors determined to have their money spent in Japan.

Recommended reading

For those interested in learning more about the situation in Japan, we have a few recommendations.

General sources of information:

Communication records from GiveWell’s investigations:

Some other articles I found worth reading but didn’t link to above:

Update on how to help Japan: No room for more funding. We recommend giving to Doctors Without Borders to promote better disaster relief in general

The situation in Japan is tragic and worrying, and our hearts continue to go out to those affected and responding.

On Friday, we recommended that donors wait to see how the situation unfolds before giving. At this point we are ready to make a recommendation, though of course this is subject to change as the situation changes.

We believe that

  • Those affected have requested very little, limited aid. Aid being offered far exceeds aid being requested. (Details below.)
  • Charities are aggressively soliciting donations, often in ways we feel are misleading (more on this in future posts).
  • Any donation you make will probably be used (a) by the charity you give it to, for activities in a different country; (b) for non-disaster-relief-and-recovery efforts in Japan.
  • If you’re looking to pursue (a) and help people in need all over the world, we recommend giving to the best charity you can, rather than basing your giving on who is appealing to you most aggressively with images and language regarding Japan.
  • If you prefer (b), a gift to the Japanese Red Cross seems reasonable.

Overall, though, a gift to Doctors Without Borders seems to us like the best way to effectively “respond to this disaster”. We feel they are a leader in transparency, honesty and integrity in relief organizations, and the fact that they’re not soliciting funds for Japan is a testament to this. Rewarding Doctors Without Borders is a move toward improving incentives and improving disaster relief in general.

Donate to Doctors Without Borders
Below, we give the evidence we’ve found that the relief/recovery effort does not have room for more funding.

Because the situation is changing rapidly, we often include archived versions of the pages we link to (these archives will retain their content even if the pages themselves are changed).

Determining room for more funding in a disaster
As argued previously, we think it’s an open question whether a given disaster has room for more funding. Our basic (evolving) process for assessing the needs in a disaster situation is:

  1. First see whether a significant gap exists between requested and pledged/committed aid. Requests for money are, in our view, a necessary (though not sufficient) indicator that there is room for more funding.
  2. Next, collect whatever information is available about the progress of the relief effort, and look for signs that money is or isn’t a primary bottleneck to a better effort. In the case of Haiti, we’ve found signs that non-monetary issues have been primary obstacles to progress.
  3. If it seems that more money is both requested and needed, look at what is being spent, and on how many people, and make an assessment of how this giving compares to everyday relief for the world’s poor. In the case of Haiti and the Asian tsunami, we concluded that relief appeared less cost-effective than everyday international aid. The story might be very different in less-publicized disasters that have more trouble attracting funding.

At this stage, we don’t believe that this crisis passes the first test above. It looks to us like more aid is being offered than requested.

Info from OCHA and ReliefWeb
One of the first places we look in a situation like this is to U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), which is “the arm of the UN Secretariat that is responsible for bringing together humanitarian actors to ensure coherent response to emergencies,” as well as its affiliated site ReliefWeb. ReliefWeb is especially useful because in addition to consolidating official updates on an unfolding crisis, it consolidates official appeals for funding. Here’s what we observe from these sources:

Japanese Red Cross
The latest official update from any Red Cross appears to be a March 12 information bulletin from the Japanese Red Cross (archived). This bulletin opens with the following:

This bulletin is being issued for information only, and reflects the current situation and details available at this time. The Japanese Red Cross Society, with the support of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, has determined that external assistance is not required, and is therefore not seeking funding or other assistance from donors at this time.

I’m not exactly sure how to square this with the donate page for the Japanese Red Cross (archived), which states:

If you wish your fund to be distributed directly among the affected population of the earthquake and tsunami, please direct your fund to the following bank account. If you need the receipt of your fund, please state so clearly in the comment section of the bank transfer order. All the fund received under this account will be transferred to the Distribution Committee, which is formed around the local government of the disaster-affected prefecture and to administer the distribution of fund.

One possible interpretation is that funds will be given directly to those affected by the earthquake, but funds are not needed for the relief effort itself.

Japanese government
This quote from Reuters (archived) is consistent with the above picture:

Japan’s government has received offers for assistance from 91 countries, and has accepted assistance from about 15 based on assessed needs, mostly for specialized international urban search and rescue (USAR) teams and medical teams.

Charities
Charities seem to be sending a very different message from the above sources. By and large, they seem to be aggressively soliciting donations, and we feel that many are implying these donations will be used in the relief/recovery effort. (Details in a future post.)

However, a close look at the language they’re using reveals that their actual involvement in relief/recovery may be very limited and they are seeking donations for other activities. Gizmodo’s Mark Wilson did a good early analysis of this phenomenon, and a look at the up-to-date descriptions of activities from the Chronicle of Philanthropy (archived) and InterAction (archived) still appears to me to indicate limited involvement, and to be full of language that raises questions about whether involvement is forthcoming. A few examples:

  • “Catholic Relief Services: The organization said Friday it has personnel standing by throughout the pacific, waiting for requests for help from Caritas Japan.”
  • “Oxfam America: The organization’s Web site this morning displayed the headline “Worst Quake in Japan on Record” and asked visitors to donate to its Saving Lives 24/7 Fund.” The Saving Lives 24/7 fund (archived) appears global in focus.
  • “Save the Children: The charity said Friday it is mobilizing people and supplies to respond to the earthquake. The organization has worked in Japan for 25 years. On Saturday, it announced it had partnered with online game company Zynga to add calls to donate in the company’s games. On Sunday, the charity said it has sent an emergency team to assess needs in the worst-affected areas.”
  • ” World Vision: The charity this morning reported that its offices in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and the Solomon Islands are on alert to assist in tsunami response. A team is also on standby for possible deployment.”

One notable exception is Doctors Without Borders, which has been completely explicit that it is not seeking funding for Japan relief. Its note on funding for Japan (archived) states

At this point, we are drawing on unrestricted donations given to MSF to fund our efforts, and we are not accepting donations specifically earmarked for recovery efforts in Japan. We greatly appreciate your generosity and encourage your support of our work. We will continue to post updates on our homepage, Facebook, and Twitter as new information becomes available.

Many other organizations may also be soliciting donations only for global efforts, but Doctors Without Borders has the most clear and explicit note that we’ve seen.

On Friday, we stated that “we prefer Doctors Without Borders … because of its past decision to stop accepting donations for Haiti relief; this greatly reduces the risk in our eyes that it will over-solicit, a very important concern in this case.” It appears that Doctors Without Borders has, in fact, not over-solicited.

This may cause Doctors Without Borders to raise less money in this disaster, but we’re hoping at least some donors will reward it.

The bottom line
I wouldn’t want anyone to take this post as an argument that (a) the situation in Japan is anything other than extremely tragic and extremely challenging; (b) you shouldn’t give to charity.

My interpretation, rather, is that

  • the people and government of Japan are extraordinarily well-prepared, as well as competent and well-resourced, and do not need significant external assistance in order to mount a maximally effective relief and recovery effort.
  • Therefore, you as a donor do not have the power to improve the relief and recovery effort in Japan. If you do give, your gift will probably be used (a) by the charity you give it to, for activities in a different country; (b) for non-disaster-relief-and-recovery efforts in Japan.
  • Of the above two possibilities, I find (a) more appealing, because Japan is a wealthy country and everyday needs are greater elsewhere. But if you’re looking to pursue (a) and help people in need all over the world, I’d highly recommend giving to the best charity you can, rather than basing your giving on who is appealing to you most aggressively with images and language regarding Japan.
  • If you prefer (b), a gift to the Japanese Red Cross seems reasonable.

Overall, though, a gift to Doctors Without Borders seems to me like the best way to effectively “respond to this disaster”. We feel they are a leader in transparency, honesty and integrity in relief organizations, and the fact that they’re not soliciting funds for Japan is a testament to this. Rewarding Doctors Without Borders is a move toward improving incentives and improving disaster relief in general.

Others with similar sentiments

Japan earthquake/tsunami relief donations

Japan has been hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami, and our hearts go out to those affected and responding.

Charities have been quick to solicit funding for the relief/recovery effort. Here we present our recommendations to donors, both in terms of which charities should be preferred and in terms of whether giving to this relief effort is a good opportunity overall.

At this point we strongly recommend holding off on giving to this relief/recovery effort. We believe that money isn’t a cure-all, and that there can be such a thing as an “overfunded” relief effort even in a devastating disaster. We don’t know yet whether that is the case with Japan, but we believe that the next few days will bring valuable information about it (and we will be providing updates in this space). We also believe that waiting a few days will not diminish the impact of your donations.

Where should you give? Lessons from Haiti

Over the last year, we’ve been examining the responses of major relief organizations to the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Our report grades these organizations on their transparency; the ones that stand out most are Direct Relief International, Doctors Without Borders and Partners in Health. Of these three, the first two appear to be responding to the Japan events (see these links for Doctors Without Borders and Direct Relief International).

Therefore, for donors determined to give to Japan relief/recovery, our top recommendation goes to Doctors Without Borders, followed by Direct Relief International. The reason we prefer Doctors Without Borders is because of its past decision to stop accepting donations for Haiti relief; this greatly reduces the risk in our eyes that it will over-solicit, a very important concern in this case (see immediately below).

We have also done substantial work assessing the overall spending and progress of the Haiti relief/recovery effort, and we feel that it provides an illustration of the fact that

Why Japan is different

This disaster is very different from other recent headline-making disasters. The 2005 Asian tsunami and 2010 Haiti earthquake took place in very poor countries; by contrast, Japan is a very wealthy country, with the 2nd- or 3rd-biggest economy in the world and per-person income in the same ballpark as that of the U.S.

This matters for several reasons.

  • Much better infrastructure and fewer logistical challenges. The The New York Times reports that

    Over the years, Japan has spent billions of dollars developing the most advanced technology against earthquakes and tsunamis. The Japanese, who regularly experience smaller earthquakes and have lived through major ones, know how to react to quakes and tsunamis because of regular drills — unlike Southeast Asians, many of whom died in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami because they lingered near the coast despite clear warnings to flee.

    This factor could cut both ways for donors. Facing fewer challenges could mean needing less money to respond and rebuild; however, it could also mean that there’s more of what we call room for more funding. (In the case of Haiti, logistical hurdles appear to have created many non-monetary bottlenecks to relief and recovery, as discussed above.)

  • Relief agencies are unlikely to have a strong existing local presence, and we find a local presence less relevant in general. From what we’ve seen major relief organizations (including the ones we recommend) do not have substantial existing presences in Japan, as they focus on working in less wealthy countries. Due to the likely smaller logistical challenges, we don’t think this should be a major factor in donors’ decisions.

  • There may be some challenges that are quite different from those seen in less wealthy countries, such as keeping nuclear reactors under control.
  • Most importantly, this relief effort will probably be far better-funded than those in less wealthy countries. We expect to have more specifics about this in the coming weeks, possibly even days.

Our advice: hold off for now

We believe that the vast majority of disaster relief funding is spent well after the initial crisis (example: Haiti). We also believe that the coming weeks (possibly days) will bring better information about the size of the need and the funds available to meet it. We will be posting any updates on the situation here.

For more advice, see Good Intentions are Not Enough. We particularly agree with the recommendations to (a) refrain from showing up as a volunteer; (b) give cash, not goods.

Your dollars at work: Update on top-rated charity VillageReach

VillageReach is the first (hopefully not the last) charity for which (a) GiveWell has raised enough money to make a qualitative difference in VillageReach’s activities; (b) GiveWell has a clear enough picture of the room for more funding situation to be able to say with some confidence what that difference is.

We intend on providing periodic (aiming for quarterly) updates on VillageReach’s (a) progress in its Mozambique expansion, for which unrestricted funds have been sought; (b) revenue, projected expenses, and room for more funding.

We have posted the first such update to the Updates on VillageReach page. In a nutshell:

  • Currently, VillageReach is active in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Maputo, and VillageReach has provided a 6-month assessment and baseline vaccination coverage survey for Cabo Delgado.
  • The overall expansion is substantially behind the schedule set out in July 2010 (on time in Cabo Delgado but 6-12 months behind for other provinces) for funding-related reasons (though revenue in 2010 closed the entire “stretch funding gap” for the year, the vast majority of that revenue was not received or anticipated until December).
  • In Cabo Delgado, data collection appears to have improved, but there are not yet other signs of improvement in the health system’s performance. This is consistent with the expected trajectory of VillageReach’s 3-year involvement in a province, and we do not find it to be a major cause for concern.
  • There has been a global supply disruption in a key vaccine that is expected to be resolved by the third quarter of 2011.
  • VillageReach had a total of about $2 million in unrestricted revenue in 2010, of which a little over $1 million can be attributed to GiveWell’s recommendation.
  • We believe that this $1 million has been key to VillageReach’s being able to plan to expand its program into the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane.
  • We believe that VillageReach has a total funding gap of about $3.6 million remaining for this project. Taking into account expected revenue from non-GiveWell-related sources leaves about $1.4 million in room for more funding. These funds would allow it to proceed as quickly as possible with its full 8-province expansion plan.

The news is not all good. The global supply disruption is a major concern for us, and a reminder of how any attempt to help can be held up by circumstances beyond one’s control. VillageReach’s reports also reveal a problem with the flow of funds between a funder and the government, and make it quite clear that there has not yet been any noticeable improvement in health system efficiency (though there has been an improvement in data collection, and this is arguably what should be expected at this stage in the project).

Overall, though, we feel better about VillageReach than we did 3 months ago because we feel we continue to have a window into the true – not stylized – impact that GiveWell-related funds are having. In our view, one of the most problematic things about charity is that people purchase something but never get to fully understand what they purchased, so the feedback loops that lead to continuous improvement in most markets are broken. This is the first case we know of where individual donors can expect to get full and frequent updates on the impact of their donations (not just how their donations were spent), and is thus a first step toward improving those feedback loops.